???? 據(jù)路透社2月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，隨著油價(jià)飆升，許多交易員預(yù)計(jì)今年晚些時(shí)候石油短缺將日益嚴(yán)重，但沙特阿拉伯石油部長(zhǎng)呼吁采取謹(jǐn)慎的方式增產(chǎn)。

????他表示:“我們現(xiàn)在的狀況比一年前好多了，但是我必須再次警告大家，不要自滿(mǎn)。不確定性非常高，我們必須非常謹(jǐn)慎。”

????相比之下，期貨市場(chǎng)顯示供應(yīng)迅速吃緊，自11月初宣布疫苗試驗(yàn)成功以來(lái)，近月布倫特原油價(jià)格在3個(gè)多月里上漲了逾25美元/桶，漲幅達(dá)65%。布倫特原油六個(gè)月期價(jià)差已飆升至每桶逾3.70美元，這表明交易商預(yù)期石油庫(kù)存將迅速減少。

????沙特石油部長(zhǎng)和交易員之間就產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量之間的預(yù)測(cè)平衡存在分歧，這是很正常的。

????沙特阿拉伯和其他歐佩克的產(chǎn)油國(guó)，以及以俄羅斯為首的歐佩克+集團(tuán)，往往對(duì)油價(jià)上漲初期的消費(fèi)情況過(guò)于悲觀。部分原因在于，當(dāng)人們對(duì)最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退危機(jī)記憶猶新時(shí)，他們擔(dān)心油價(jià)和收入會(huì)回到較低水的平。正如沙特部長(zhǎng)此前所說(shuō)的那樣，2020年的危機(jī)告訴我們要對(duì)市場(chǎng)保持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。

????值得注意的是，消費(fèi)預(yù)測(cè)不足和產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)過(guò)高將導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上漲和暴利。沙特阿拉伯前任石油部長(zhǎng)在2018年2月曾表示：“如果我們無(wú)法避免在平衡供需市場(chǎng)上發(fā)生判斷性的錯(cuò)誤，那就順其自然吧。”

????價(jià)格上漲在短期內(nèi)有利于政府財(cái)政，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，則將為生產(chǎn)過(guò)剩和另一場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退創(chuàng)造條件。其結(jié)果是，歐佩克對(duì)增產(chǎn)持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度——即便是在價(jià)格上漲、庫(kù)存減少、市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)明顯現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)的情況下。

????歐佩克增產(chǎn)緩慢通常會(huì)導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存低于平均水平，而價(jià)格則會(huì)過(guò)高，直到非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)的增產(chǎn)使價(jià)格見(jiàn)頂，然后開(kāi)始下跌。

????由于市場(chǎng)是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的自適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)，具有一些混亂的特征，因此無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)波峰和波谷的準(zhǔn)確時(shí)間和幅度。但價(jià)格、產(chǎn)量、消費(fèi)、庫(kù)存和價(jià)差的漲跌模式，以及歐佩克對(duì)此的反應(yīng)，遵循著一個(gè)熟悉的規(guī)律。這個(gè)循環(huán)可以分為一系列的階段。確切的數(shù)字是任意的，相位可以重疊而不是完全不同。近期庫(kù)存下降、現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格上升、現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)急劇上升，都表明市場(chǎng)正走向峰值。

????歐佩克繼續(xù)限制產(chǎn)量的決心將減弱，它將面臨通過(guò)增產(chǎn)來(lái)抑制價(jià)格上漲的壓力。在2020年末和2021年初，歐佩克+的幾個(gè)成員國(guó)要求提高產(chǎn)量，許多成員國(guó)的減產(chǎn)合規(guī)程度似乎正在下降。

????隨著油價(jià)飆升，歐佩克已經(jīng)面臨越來(lái)越多的壓力，要求其開(kāi)始增加產(chǎn)量，否則就會(huì)面臨美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油公司鉆探和生產(chǎn)復(fù)蘇的挑戰(zhàn)。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

????原文如下：

????Column: OPEC+ under pressure to boost output as oil climbs towards peak

????Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has called for a cautious approach to raising production, even as prices surge and many traders anticipate an increasingly severe shortage of petroleum later this year.

????“We are in a much better place than we were a year ago, but I must warn, once again, against complacency. The uncertainty is very high, and we have to be extremely cautious,” the minister said in a speech on Wednesday.

????In contrast, futures markets point to a rapid tightening of supply, with front-month Brent up more than $25 per barrel or 65% in just over three months since successful vaccine trials were announced in early November.

????Brent’s six-month calendar spread has surged into a backwardation of more than $3.70 per barrel, putting it in the 94th percentile for all trading days since 1990, and indicating traders expect a rapid depletion in oil stocks.

????Disagreements between the Saudi oil minister and traders about the forecast balance between production and consumption historically have been common at this point in the price cycle.

????Saudi Arabia and other producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as the broader group of allies led by Russia (OPEC+), tend to be over-pessimistic about consumption early in the upswing.

????Part of the reason is fear of a return to low prices and revenues when memories of the recent slump are still fresh. “The scars from the events of last year should teach us caution,” as the Saudi minister said on Feb. 17.

????But producers also have a financial incentive to err on the side of caution. Under-forecasting consumption and over-forecasting production leads to a rise in prices and revenue windfall.

????“If we have to err on over-balancing the market a little bit, so be it. Rather than quitting too early and finding out we were dealing with less reliable information ... stay the course,” Saudi Arabia’s previous oil minister said almost exactly three years ago in February 2018, when prices and spreads were at the same level they are now.

????Rising prices are beneficial for government finances in the short term, even if they create the conditions for over-production and another slump in the long term.

????The result is that it is quite normal for OPEC to be wary of raising output at this stage in the cycle – even as prices rise, inventories shrink and the market moves into a pronounced backwardation.

????OPEC’s slowness in raising production typically causes inventories to fall below average, and prices to overshoot on the upside, until a rise in output from non-OPEC producers causes prices to peak and then start to fall.

????Every price cycle is slightly different. Some slumps are triggered by recessions, others by volume wars. And OPEC+ ministers come and go. But the basic decision-making framework and incentives stay largely the same.

????The precise timing and magnitude of peaks and troughs cannot be forecast because the market is a complex adaptive system that has some chaotic features.

????But the broad pattern of rising and falling prices, production, consumption, inventories and spreads, as well as OPEC’s response to them, follows a familiar sequence.

????The cycle can be split into a series of phases. The exact number is somewhat arbitrary and the phases can overlap and not be fully distinct.

????The recent fall in inventories, rise in spot prices, and shift towards a steep backwardation, indicate the market is moving towards a peak.

????In previous cycles, at this point OPEC’s resolution to continue restricting output would weaken and it would come under pressure to curb price increases by boosting production .

????The current upswing appears to be following the same pattern. In late 2020 and early 2021, several members of OPEC+ pushed for output increases and compliance appears to be fading for many members.

????With prices surging, the organisation already faces increasing calls to start boosting output or risk a resurgence of drilling and production from U.S. shale firms.