據(jù)天然氣新聞2021年4月15日倫敦報(bào)道，國(guó)際能源署（IEA）在4月15日發(fā)布的其最新季度市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中表示，今年全球天然氣需求預(yù)計(jì)將同比增加3.2%，這個(gè)增幅足以抵消去年失去的消耗。
報(bào)告說(shuō)，去年，全球天然氣需求下降了1.9%或750億立方米，但在工業(yè)部門需求的推動(dòng)下，今年全球天然氣需求預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇。
IEA高級(jí)分析師Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil在發(fā)布該報(bào)告的網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會(huì)上表示，“我們預(yù)計(jì)今年全球天然氣需求將出現(xiàn)反彈，我們認(rèn)為這不僅足以抵消去年的影響，而且與2019年相比還會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些增加。”
然而，他表示，預(yù)期的需求增加“非常脆弱”，并取決于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的路徑。
報(bào)告表示，去年全球工業(yè)部門的天然氣消費(fèi)仍保持彈性，預(yù)計(jì)年下降1.2%，預(yù)計(jì)今年將以5.4%的同比增長(zhǎng)(接近550億立方米)領(lǐng)先。
不過(guò)，Dubreuil表示，這是有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的，因?yàn)楣I(yè)部門需求增長(zhǎng)與GDP因素“密切”相關(guān)。
他補(bǔ)充稱，盡管需求(尤其是新興市場(chǎng)需求)的前景正在好轉(zhuǎn)，但所有地區(qū)的復(fù)蘇“并不相同”。
“一些成熟市場(chǎng)，比如北美，今年不太可能出現(xiàn)全面復(fù)蘇，” Dubreuil如是說(shuō)。
IEA在第一季度市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中還表示，COVID-19大流行對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期影響的前景“為短期天然氣需求增加步伐增添了進(jìn)一步的不確定性”。
李峻 編譯自 天然氣新聞
原文如下：
Global gas demand to rise by 3.2% in 2021, offsetting 2020 losses: IEA
Global gas demand is expected to increase by 3.2% year on year in 2021, enough to more than offset the lost consumption in 2020, the International Energy Agency said in its latest quarterly market report published April 15.
Gas demand fell by 1.9% -- or some 75 Bcm -- in 2020, but recovery is expected this year, driven by demand in the industrial sector.
"We expect globally to see a rebound, sufficient in our view not only to offset last year but also show some growth compared with 2019," IEA senior analyst Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil said during a webinar presenting the report.
However, he said, the forecast demand growth was "highly fragile" and dependent on the path of global economic recovery.
Consumption in the industrial sector, which remained resilient in 2020 with an estimated 1.2% annual decline, is expected to take the lead in 2021 with 5.4% year-on-year growth -- close to 55 Bcm.
There is risk to this, however, because industrial demand is "intimately" related to GDP factors, Dubreuil said.
He added that while the picture is brightening for demand, especially in emerging markets, the recovery is "not the same" for all regions.
"Some mature markets -- such as North America -- are unlikely to see a full recovery this year," he said.
In the Q1 report, the IEA also said the prospect of a prolonged impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy "adds further uncertainty to the pace of short-term gas demand growth."
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