據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站4月15日消息 國際能源署（IEA）在最新的月度石油市場報告中稱，將2021年全球石油需求增長預(yù)測上調(diào)23萬桶/日。繼去年全球石油需求下降870萬桶/日后，預(yù)計2021年全球石油需求將增加570萬桶/日，達到9670萬桶/日。

　　上調(diào)的背后是宏觀經(jīng)濟前景的改善，以及更強勁的即時指標。在4月份更新的《世界經(jīng)濟展望》中，國際貨幣基金組織將2021年和2022年全球GDP增長預(yù)測分別上調(diào)至+6%和+4.4%，但指出復(fù)蘇存在分歧，且存在高度不確定性。毫不奇怪，最大的增長是美國，考慮到其迅速推出疫苗和即將出臺的巨額刺激計劃。　　然而，對需求增長復(fù)蘇力度的擔憂依然揮之不去，歐洲以及印度和巴西等一些主要石油消費國的COVID-19病例數(shù)量激增。

　　在美國關(guān)閉的石油產(chǎn)量從寒流中恢復(fù)后，3月份世界石油供應(yīng)增加了170萬桶/日，達到9290萬桶/日。美國、巴西的生物燃料的進一步增長將提振4月份的全球供應(yīng)，而參與歐佩克+減產(chǎn)計劃的產(chǎn)油國將繼續(xù)限制石油供應(yīng)。根據(jù)國際能源機構(gòu)的預(yù)測，非歐佩克成員國在2020年減少130萬桶/日后，2021年將增加61萬桶/日。美國供應(yīng)量將在2020年下降60萬桶/日后再下降10萬桶/日。

　　初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)合組織（OECD）3月份石油庫存在連續(xù)7個月平倉后基本持穩(wěn)。2月份，經(jīng)合組織石油庫存減少5580萬桶（200萬桶/日）。石油庫存總量為29.77億桶，比2016-2020年的平均水平高出2800萬桶，比一年前高出9400萬桶。

　　原油基準從3月中旬的22個月高點回落，布倫特和WTI上一交易日分別在63美元/桶和60美元/桶左右。

　　王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

　　原文如下：

　　IEA revised up 2021 global oil demand growth forecast

　　In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised up its 2021 global oil demand growth forecast by 230,000 b/d. Following a decline of 8.7 million b/d last year, world oil demand is now expected to expand by 5.7 million b/d in 2021 to 96.7 million b/d.

　　The upward revision was backed by improved macroeconomic outlook, along with stronger prompt indicators. In its April update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its forecasts for 2021 and 2022 global GDP growth to +6% and +4.4%, respectively, but noted divergent recoveries and a high degree of uncertainty. Not surprisingly, the biggest upgrade was for the US, given its swift vaccine rollout and hefty stimulus packages on the way.

　　There are still lingering concerns over the strength of the recovery in demand growth, however, with the number of COVID-19 cases surging in Europe and some major oil consuming countries such as India and Brazil.

　　World oil supply rose 1.7 million b/d in March to 92.9 million b/d after shut-in US output recovered from a cold snap. Further gains from the US, Brazil, and biofuels are set to lift global supply in April, while producers taking part in OPEC+ cuts continue to limit flows. According to IEA forecasts, non-OPEC+ will see gains of 610,000 b/d in 2021 after a 1.3 million b/d drop in 2020. US supply is set to fall 100,000 b/d after a 600,000 b/d loss in 2020.

　　Preliminary data suggest OECD oil stocks held largely steady in March, following seven consecutive months of draws. In February, OECD oil inventories fell by 55.8 million bbl, or 2 million b/d. At 2,977 million bbl, total oil stocks were 28 million bbl above the 2016-2020 average, but 94 million bbl higher than a year ago.

　　Crude oil benchmarks retreated from their 22-month highs of mid-March, with Brent and WTI last trading at around $63/bbl and $60/bbl, respectively.

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