據(jù)5月12日Investing.com報道，由于美元疲軟和歐佩克上調(diào)需求預(yù)期，油價上漲。WTI原油目前交易價格接近每桶65.41美元，大大高于前一日每桶63.68美元的低點。

　　不過，周一晚些時候，Colonial Pipeline表示，計劃在本周末前重新開放關(guān)閉的輸油管道。由于上周五晚些時候Colonial Pipeline關(guān)閉后引發(fā)供應(yīng)擔憂，周一早些時候汽油價格飆升至3年高點。從德克薩斯州到東北部的輸油管道每天輸送250萬桶的燃油，占東海岸汽油、柴油和噴氣式飛機燃油消耗量的45%。

　　與此同時，歐佩克提高了2021年對其原油的需求預(yù)期。在一份月度報告中，歐佩克表示，今年石油需求將增加595萬桶/天，增幅為6.6%。該預(yù)測與上月持平。假設(shè)疫情的影響將在下半年初“基本得到控制”，歐佩克目前預(yù)計2021年世界經(jīng)濟增長率為5.5%，高于上月的5.4%。

　　積極的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)支持原油價格。美國3月份JOLTS職位空缺數(shù)據(jù)顯示出勞動力市場走強，同樣，德國和日本的積極數(shù)據(jù)也表明經(jīng)濟增長出現(xiàn)強勁復(fù)蘇。由于最近新冠肺炎疫情激增，印度的燃料需求大幅下降，印度4月份汽油銷量降至214萬噸，為8個月來的最低水平。

　　API周二下報告稱，上周美國原油供應(yīng)下降了253萬桶，汽油庫存增加了564萬桶。美國能源信息署(EIA)上周三發(fā)布的每周數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至4月30日，美國原油庫存比5年季節(jié)性平均水平低1.7%，汽油庫存比5年平均水平低1.9%，餾分油庫存比5年平均水平低2.5%。

　　貝克休斯上周五報告稱，截至5月7日，美國活躍鉆井平臺數(shù)量增加了2臺，這也反映了美國原油供應(yīng)的走勢。

　　值得一提的是，原油價格很可能在20日均線63.78美元/桶和50日均線61.94美元/桶的關(guān)鍵支撐位之上保持堅挺。與此同時，油價可能在每桶67.78美元左右面臨強勁阻力。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC Raised Oil Demand Forecast

　　WTI Crude oil is currently trading near $65.41 per barrel which is sharply higher from yesterday low of $63.68; prices are trading higher on dollar weakness and revised OPEC demand forecast.

　　However crude oil prices were under pressure on an easing of supply concerns after Colonial Pipeline said late Monday that it plans to reopen its shuttered pipeline by the end of this week gasoline prices soared to a 3-year high early Monday due to supply concerns after the Colonial Pipeline was shut down late last Friday. The pipeline from Texas to the Northeast carries 2.5 million BPD of fuel or 45% of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumed by the East Coast.

　　Meanwhile, OPEC raised the 2021 demand estimate for its crude oil. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.95 million barrels per day (BPD) this year, or 6.6%. The forecast was unchanged from last month. OPEC now sees 2021 world economic growth at 5.5%, up from 5.4% last month, assuming the impact of the pandemic will have been "largely contained" by the beginning of the second half.

　　Positive economic data is supportive for crude oil prices. US March JOLTS job openings data is showing a stronger labour market, similarly, positive data from Germany and Japan have indicted a strong recovery in growth.

　　However crude oil is negatively affected as China's Customs General Administration reported last Friday that the fuel demand in India has plunged as the recent surge in new Covid infections, India gasoline sales in April fell to 2.14 MMT, the lowest in 8 months.

　　API reported late Tuesday afternoon that US crude supplies fell -2.53 million bbl and gasoline stockpiles rose +5.64 million bbl last week. However official US inventory data will be released later today to provide fresh direction to the oil market. It is expected that EIA crude inventories may fall by -2.0 million bbl.

　　Last Wednesday's weekly EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories as of Apr. 30 were -1.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were -1.9% below the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -2.5% below the 5-year average.

　　Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs rose by +2 rigs in the week ended May 7, rigmcount number is indicative of oil production in the US.

　　Crude oil prices are likely to trade firm while above the key support level of 20 days EMA of $63.78 per barrel and 50 days EMA of $61.94 per barrel. Meanwhile, it may face stiff resistance around $67.78 per barrel.

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