據鉆機地帶6月15日消息，由于新冠疫情危機的影響，未來兩年油價上漲的條件已經成熟。

　　波士頓咨詢集團(BCG)周一發布的一份新報告稱，該公司認為，疫苗接種計劃極有可能“釋放全球經濟關鍵領域被壓制的巨大石油需求”。該公司表示，這種激增的需求將同時伴隨著去年油價下跌時生產商大幅削減資本支出 (CAPEX) 造成的供應短缺。

　　BCG在報告中指出，鑒于即將到來的需求增長的快速發展，下一個超級周期的出現時間可能會比之前的價格上漲期所對應的周期要短。該公司強調，這種快速增長將給供應商和用戶帶來壓力。

　　BCG在報告中表示:“因此，我們認為價格上漲發生的可能性很高，但也可能很快結束——在18個月內，甚至更短的時間內。”

　　“也許更重要的是，這次石油增長期可能是全球史上最后一次。石油市場體系繼續變得更加靈活，供需都比過去更有彈性，這使得增長發生的可能性更小。即使出現這種情況，峰值價格也可能會更低。”BCG在報告中補充道。

　　BCG警告稱，有幾個因素可能會影響增長的時機，抑制或加劇未來的價格上漲。該公司強調，進一步的封鎖限制或新冠病毒變種的出現可能會立即阻止需求的上升，推遲甚至結束任何正在出現的油價上漲。

　　裘寅 編譯自 鉆機地帶

　　原文如下：

　　Conditions Ripe for Oil Price Boom

　　As a result of the Covid-19 crisis, conditions are ripe for an oil price boom during the next two years.

　　That’s according to a new report published by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) on Monday, which outlined that the company sees high potential for vaccination programs to “unleash huge pent-up demand for oil in key areas of the global economy”. The company said this surging demand will coincide with a supply shortfall created by producers that cut capital expenditure (CAPEX) sharply when oil prices fell last year.

　　Given the rapid development of the upcoming boom, the next supercycle will likely occur on a time scale that will be shorter than the ones associated with prior price booms, BCG noted in the report. The company highlighted that this quick rise will put pressure on suppliers and end users.

　　“We therefore see a high probability that a price boom will occur but also that it could be over quite quickly - within 18 months, or even less,” BCG stated in the report.

　　“Perhaps more important, this oil boom could be the world’s last. The oil market system continues to become more flexible, with both supply and demand more elastic than in the past, making booms less likely to happen. And even if they do occur, peak prices are likely to be lower,” BCG added in the report.

　　BCG warned that several factors could affect the timing of a boom and either curb or exacerbate future price rises. Further lockdown restrictions or the appearance of new Covid-19 variants could immediately halt upward demand movement and delay or even end any emerging oil price boom, the company highlighted.

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