????據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年7月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)在其最新的短期月度展望報(bào)告中稱，今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)料為68.78美元/桶，并大幅調(diào)高了其對(duì)2021年和2022年的油價(jià)預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)全球石油需求將繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇。
????EIA短期能源展望(STEO)對(duì)7月份布倫特原油價(jià)格的最新預(yù)測(cè)比6月份預(yù)測(cè)的每桶65.19美元高出3美元以上。
????然而，需要指出的是，EIA是在7月1日完成了對(duì)7月份STEO的預(yù)測(cè)，也就是說(shuō)，是在歐佩克+的爭(zhēng)吵使市場(chǎng)陷入直接供應(yīng)、生產(chǎn)協(xié)議的未來(lái)和聯(lián)盟本身的不確定性之前。
????根據(jù)EIA 截止7月1日的估計(jì)，今年美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)WTI原油的平均現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將達(dá)到65.85美元/桶，高于6月預(yù)期的61.85美元/桶。
????2022年的原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)也被上調(diào)。明年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)將為66.64美元/桶，高于此前預(yù)測(cè)的60.49美元，而WTI明年的現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)將為62.97美元/桶，較6月份預(yù)測(cè)的56.74美元/桶上漲逾6美元/桶。
????EIA還指出，布倫特-西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)差收窄，因?yàn)樵?月的大部分時(shí)間里，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格的漲幅超過(guò)了布倫特原油的漲幅，導(dǎo)致布倫特-西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)差在7月1日收窄至0.61美元/桶。
????EIA在報(bào)告中說(shuō)：“由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)從COVID-19的影響中繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇，原油價(jià)格的持續(xù)上漲反映了石油需求的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。 油價(jià)上漲也反映了原油供應(yīng)的持續(xù)限制，因?yàn)榕c增長(zhǎng)速度更快的需求相比，原油產(chǎn)量仍然相對(duì)較低。”
????李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
????原文如下：
????EIA Sees Brent Prices Averaging $69 This Year
????Brent Crude spot prices are set to average $68.78 per barrel this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest monthly outlook, significantly raising its oil price projections for both 2021 and 2022, expecting continued demand recovery.
????The latest Brent price forecast in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for July is more than $3 a barrel higher than the June forecast of $65.19.
????It should be noted, however, that the Administration completed its forecasts for the July STEO on July 1, that is, just before the OPEC+ spat threw markets into uncertainty over immediate supply, the future of the production deal, and the alliance itself.
????According to EIA’s estimates as of July 1, the average spot price of the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, will be $65.85/b this year, up from an average of $61.85/b expected last month.
????For 2022, the price forecasts were also hiked. Brent spot prices are set to average $66.64/b, up from the previous $60.49 forecast, while the WTI spot price next year is expected to average $62.97/b, up by more than $6/b compared to the June forecast of $56.74/b.
????The EIA also noted the narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread, as the increase in WTI prices outpaced the rise in Brent for most of June, resulting in a narrowing of the Brent–WTI spread to as low as $0.61/b on July 1.
????“The persistently increasing crude oil prices reflect continuing increases in petroleum demand as the global economy continues to recover from the impacts of COVID-19. The rising prices also reflect ongoing constraints on crude oil supply as crude oil production remains relatively low compared with the more rapid pace of growing demand,” the EIA said.
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