???? 據美國鉆井網站2021年7月8日報道，除非違反規定的行為動搖了歐佩克+的凝聚力，否則，從8月份開始缺乏新政策可能會在未來幾天和幾周內繼續將油價推高至每桶80美元。

????這是挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）石油市場分析師路易絲·迪克森在日前發給美國鉆井網站的一份聲明中表示的觀點。 迪克森在聲明中概述稱，8月份市場可能面臨嚴重供應不足的風險。

????迪克森在這份聲明中稱，“這不僅僅是歐佩克+限制供應的問題。美國頁巖生產商似乎也不愿意投資并增加自己的產量來填補供應缺口，主要原因是，美國頁巖生產商在低油價時被鎖定在對沖頭寸中，無法刺激產量增長。”

????迪克森還指出，歐佩克+成員國仍有時間再次坐在一起，在8月之前達成“各方都能接受”的增產方案。

????迪克森稱，“市場預期歐佩克+最終將達成共識，因增加產量是謹慎的，特別是在今年下半年石油需求軌跡開始上升之際。”

????這位分析師警告說，如果談判破裂，歐佩克+產油國反對最初的協議，市場可能面臨不受管制的產量，“這可能導致巨大的負面價格沖擊”。 然而，迪克森指出，與歐佩克+聯盟最終達成協議相比，這種情況的可能性要小得多。

????李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

????原文如下：

????Oil Could Jump Towards $80 in Days

????Unless a compliance rebellion rocks OPEC+’s cohesion, the lack of a new policy from August could continue to hike prices towards $80 in the coming days and weeks.

????That’s according to Rystad Energy’s oil markets analyst Louise Dickson, who expressed the view in a statement sent to Rigzone on Wednesday. In the statement, Dickson outlined that the market has been put in a position of risking a sizeable undersupply next month.

????“It’s not only the OPEC+ keeping a tight lid on supply,” Dickson said in a statement. “U.S. shale producers also seem to be reluctant to invest and increase their own production sufficiently to plug the supply deficit, with the rationale largely related to producers being locked into hedging positions at lower oil prices that do not incentivize production growth,” the Rystad representative added.

????Dickson went on to note that there is still time for OPEC+ members to sit together again and agree on a “mutually acceptable” way to increase production before August.

????“The market expectation is that a consensus will eventually be reached by OPEC+, as increasing production is prudent especially as the oil demand trajectory takes off in the second half of this year,” Dickson said.

????The analyst warned that if negotiations break down and OPEC+ producers rebel against the original deal, the market could face unregulated output, “which could cause a massive negative price shock”. Dickson outlined, however, this this scenario was less likely than that of the alliance reaching an eventual deal.

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