據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年7月22日?qǐng)?bào)道，每桶100美元油價(jià)的預(yù)測(cè)仍在流傳。 但在油價(jià)本周早些時(shí)候暴跌了7%以后，市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了新的冷靜。

　　據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，巴克萊銀行預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月油價(jià)增長(zhǎng)將更為溫和和緩慢上漲。

　　但也不排除每桶100美元的油價(jià)。

　　全球原油庫(kù)存仍然緊張。 在美國(guó)，截至7月16日當(dāng)周，原油庫(kù)存為4.397億桶，比今年同期的五年平均水平低了7%。

　　令人擔(dān)憂的是，由于全球原油庫(kù)存仍然緊張，如果歐佩克+推遲將原油產(chǎn)量重新投入市場(chǎng)，油價(jià)可能會(huì)飆升至每桶100美元。 沙特阿拉伯是歐佩克內(nèi)較為保守的成員國(guó)之一，在恢復(fù)市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)方面，沙特阿拉伯傾向于采取更為謹(jǐn)慎的方式。

　　當(dāng)然，正如巴克萊銀行周四在一份報(bào)告中指出的那樣，歐佩克+并不認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)積極的舉措，因?yàn)樵诿客?00美元的情況下，需求將會(huì)受到一些侵蝕。

　　歐佩克+周日同意在8月份日增40萬(wàn)桶原油產(chǎn)量，之后每月再日增40萬(wàn)桶，直到整個(gè)減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃結(jié)束。

　　但巴克萊銀行認(rèn)為，盡管油價(jià)有望升至每桶100美元，但這不太可能出現(xiàn)。巴克萊銀行預(yù)計(jì)，今年布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格為69美元/桶，高于此前預(yù)計(jì)的66美元/桶，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油（WTI）的平均價(jià)格為67美元/桶。 巴克萊銀行預(yù)計(jì)，明年布倫特原油均價(jià)為68美元/桶，WTI原油均價(jià)為65美元/桶。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Barclays Sees Gradual Oil Price Rally

　　The forecasts for $100 oil are still being bandied about. But there is a new sober in the market after oil prices came crashing down earlier this week with a 7% slide.

　　Barclays, for one, is predicting more moderate oil price growth, eying a slow rise over the next few months, according to Reuters.

　　But it’s not ruling out $100 oil.

　　Oil inventories remain tight. In the United States, crude oil inventories are sitting at 439.7 million barrels as of the week ending July 16—that’s 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

　　And the fear is that as oil inventories remain tight around the globe, oil could jump to $100 should OPEC+ drag its feet in bringing back oil production into the market. Saudi Arabia is one of the group’s more conservative members, who favors a more cautious approach to bringing back supply to the market.

　　Of course, as Barclays pointed out in a note on Thursday, OPEC+ wouldn’t see this as a positive step because at $100 oil, there would be some demand erosion.

　　OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to bring back 400,000 bpd to the market in August, and another 400,000 bpd every month after that until the entire production cut has been wound down.

　　But $100 oil, while possible, is unlikely, according to Barclay’s, who sees the price of Brent averaging $69 per barrel this year, up from $66 per barrel in its previous estimate, with WTI averaging $67. Barclays sees Brent averaging $68 next year, with WTI averaging $65.

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