據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)7月31日倫敦報(bào)道，根據(jù)路透社(Reuters)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，7月歐佩克石油產(chǎn)量升至2020年4月以來(lái)的最高水平，由于該組織根據(jù)與盟國(guó)達(dá)成的協(xié)議進(jìn)一步放松了產(chǎn)量限制，同時(shí)最大出口國(guó)沙特阿拉伯逐步取消了自愿減產(chǎn)。

　　根據(jù)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，歐佩克的石油日產(chǎn)量為2,672萬(wàn)桶，較6月的預(yù)估增加61萬(wàn)桶。自2020年6月以來(lái)，除2月外，每個(gè)月的產(chǎn)量都在增長(zhǎng)。

　　隨著需求和經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇，歐佩克及其盟國(guó)(即歐佩克+)一直在解除2020年4月達(dá)成的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的減產(chǎn)協(xié)議。隨著油價(jià)升至兩年半以來(lái)的最高水平，OPEC+本月決定從8月份開(kāi)始進(jìn)一步增產(chǎn)。

　　德國(guó)商業(yè)銀行(Commerzbank)的卡斯滕·弗里奇(Carsten Fritsch)表示，多數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)仍預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年需求將強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。換句話說(shuō)，我們很容易相信，石油市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)學(xué)會(huì)了應(yīng)對(duì)病毒。

　　OPEC+協(xié)議允許歐佩克7月日產(chǎn)量較6月增加36萬(wàn)桶，而沙特阿拉伯承諾增加40萬(wàn)桶日產(chǎn)量，作為取消2月、3月和4月自愿減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶計(jì)劃的最后一步。

　　根據(jù)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，歐佩克13個(gè)成員國(guó)的表現(xiàn)略低于預(yù)期的月度環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)。這些成員國(guó)對(duì)減產(chǎn)承諾的遵守度有所下降，但該集團(tuán)的產(chǎn)量仍低于最新協(xié)議要求的水平。

　　調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，歐佩克履行減產(chǎn)承諾的比例為115%，而6月份修正后的比例為118%。

　　沙特的提振

　　沙特阿拉伯在7月提供了最大的增幅，達(dá)到了46萬(wàn)桶/天，作為7月1日OPEC+增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃的一部分，沙特進(jìn)一步解除了其自愿減產(chǎn)并提高了產(chǎn)量。

　　第二大增幅來(lái)自阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)，按照新的配額增加了4萬(wàn)桶/天。根據(jù)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，科威特和尼日利亞的日產(chǎn)量各增加3萬(wàn)桶，而歐佩克第二大產(chǎn)油國(guó)伊拉克的日產(chǎn)量小幅增加2萬(wàn)桶。

　　路透社的調(diào)查旨在跟蹤市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)情況，其依據(jù)是外部來(lái)源、Refinitiv Eikon流動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)、來(lái)自石油物流和Kpler等油輪跟蹤公司的信息，以及石油公司、歐佩克和咨詢公司提供的信息。

　　郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

　　原文如下:

　　OPEC July oil output hits 15-month high as demand recovers, survey shows

　　OPEC oil output rose in July to its highest since April 2020, a Reuters survey found, as the group further eased production curbs under a pact with its allies and top exporter Saudi Arabia phased out a voluntary supply cut.

　　The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 26.72 million barrels per day (bpd), the survey found, up 610,000 bpd from June's revised estimate. Output has risen every month since June 2020 apart from in February.

　　OPEC and allies, known as OPEC+, have been unwinding record output cuts agreed in April 2020, as demand and the economy recover. With oil prices rising to a 2 1/2-year high, OPEC+ decided this month on further hikes from August.

　　"Most forecasts are still predicting robust growth in demand in the second half of the year," said Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank. "It is easy to believe that the oil market has learnt to live with the virus, in other words."

　　The OPEC+ agreement allows for a 360,000 bpd increase in OPEC output in July versus June, while Saudi Arabia had pledged to add 400,000 bpd as the final step in a plan to unwind a 1 million bpd voluntary cut it made in February, March and April.

　　The 13-member OPEC has slightly under-delivered on the expected month-on-month rise, the survey found. Members' adherence to pledged cuts declined but the group was still pumping less than called for under the latest deal.

　　OPEC compliance with pledged cuts was 115%, the survey found, versus a revised 118% in June.

　　SAUDI BOOST

　　Saudi Arabia delivered the biggest increase in July of 460,000 bpd, as it further unwound its voluntary cut and raised output as part of the July 1 OPEC+ boost.

　　The second-biggest came from the United Arab Emirates, which added 40,000 bpd in line with its new quota. Kuwait and Nigeria each added 30,000 bpd, the survey found, while output in OPEC's No. 2 producer Iraq edged up by 20,000 bpd.

　　The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from tanker trackers such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.

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