據OILNOW網站12月12日消息 總部位于挪威的雷斯塔能源最近進行了“加速向更清潔燃料來源過渡如何影響石油和天然氣供應商”的研究。這家能源研究和商業智能公司利用自己的數據驅動的能源供應預測得出結論，與工業化前水平相比，全球氣溫上升1.6°C仍然可能是一個趨勢，盡管目前世界正朝著更大幅度的上升。
雷斯塔能源表示：“深入研究可能開發的油田類型（無論是石油還是天然氣，還是涉及海底、浮式或固定式海上設施，常規項目還是非常規項目）有助于分析不同服務領域在不同情況下的發展情況。對于油田服務業的五大服務行業中的每一個，我們都可以計算未來三十年可能的復合年增長率，以確定哪些行業可能證明最具彈性。”
2020-2030年間，海底產品線可能表現最好，甚至可能在1.6攝氏度的情況下實現增長。
雷斯塔能源表示：“隨著巴西和圭亞那在深水領域取得重大成功，海底設備和SURF的需求將大幅增長，因為這些不斷增長的石油經濟體在當前十年中嚴重依賴其化石燃料資源?！?/p>
維護、改造和運營（MMO）以及工程、采購、施工和安裝（EPCI）行業預計在本十年內，隨著勘探和生產運營商在未來五年優先考慮綠地項目，所有三種氣候情景（1.6℃、1.8℃和2.0℃）都將出現增長。
圭亞那有一系列重大項目正在進行中，埃克森美孚運營的Stabroek區塊正在建設中。Liza 1于2019年末開始產油，第二階段計劃于明年初投產。Payara的第三個項目已經獲得批準，Yellowtail的第四個項目正在等待地方當局的批準?？偟膩碚f，到十年中期，這些項目每天將交付80多萬桶石油。
吳恒磊 編譯自 OILNOW
原文如下：
Major Guyana projects pushing oilfield service growth – Rystad Energy
Norway-based Rystad Energy recently examined how an accelerated transition to cleaner fuel sources could impact oil and gas suppliers. Using its own data-driven forecasts for energy supply, the energy research and business intelligence company concluded that a rise of 1.6°C versus pre-industrial levels can still be a likely trajectory for global temperatures, although at present the world is heading towards a larger increase.
“Looking deeper into what type of fields are likely to be developed – whether they be oil or gas, involve subsea, floating or grounded offshore facilities, be they conventional or unconventional projects – makes it possible to analyse how various service segments will develop in different scenarios,” Rystad Energy said. “For each of the major five service segments in oilfield services, we can compute the likely compound annual growth rates in the next three decades to see which segments are likely to prove the most resilient.”
Between 2020 and 2030, the subsea product lines are the one that are likely to fare best, potentially even posting growth in a 1.6-degree scenario.
“With the major deepwater successes in Brazil and Guyana, subsea equipment and SURF will see major demand growth as these growing oil economies are heavily dependent on their fossil fuel resources in the current decade,” Rystad Energy said.
The maintenance, modifications and operations (MMO) and engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) sectors are where it expects growth to occur in all three climate scenarios – 1.6°C, 1.8°C and 2.0°C – in this decade as greenfield projects being prioritized by exploration and production operators in the next five years.
Guyana has a string of major projects underway and in the pipeline at the giant ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block. Liza 1 began producing oil in late 2019 and Phase 2 is set to come on stream early next year. A third project at Payara is already approved and a fourth at Yellowtail is waiting the greenlight from local authorities. All told, these projects will deliver over 800,000 barrels of oil per day by mid-decade.
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