據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年12月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在其12月17日發(fā)布的2021年煤炭年度報(bào)告中表示，疫情后的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將煤炭發(fā)電推向新的歷史新高，明年全球煤炭需求可能會(huì)達(dá)到另一個(gè)新高，這將破壞全球?qū)崿F(xiàn)凈零排放的努力。
IEA稱，由于關(guān)鍵消費(fèi)國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇比預(yù)期更早開(kāi)始，而且比最初的預(yù)測(cè)更強(qiáng)，去年全球煤炭需求的崩潰程度比預(yù)期的要小。
根據(jù)目前的趨勢(shì)，IEA估計(jì)，到2022年，全球煤炭年需求量將升至8025萬(wàn)噸，創(chuàng)歷史最高水平，并將一直保持到2024年。
IEA表示，今年全球的復(fù)蘇粉碎了燃煤發(fā)電可能已經(jīng)達(dá)到頂峰的任何希望，預(yù)計(jì)全球燃煤發(fā)電今年將增長(zhǎng)9%，達(dá)到10350太瓦時(shí)(TWh)，這又是歷史新高。
IEA表示，未來(lái)兩年，全球煤炭需求甚至可能創(chuàng)下歷史新高，因?yàn)橐詠喼薮髧?guó)和印度為首的新興市場(chǎng)將引領(lǐng)煤炭消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)，這一增長(zhǎng)速度將超過(guò)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的下滑速度。
IEA表示，全球煤炭消費(fèi)量并未達(dá)到凈零排放軌道，在2024年之前也不太可能達(dá)到凈零排放軌道。
IEA在其報(bào)告中表示：“盡管全球?qū)稍偕茉吹闹虚L(zhǎng)期投資將強(qiáng)勁，但煤炭供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將擴(kuò)大到2024年。”
IEA署長(zhǎng)法提赫·比羅爾說(shuō)：“煤炭是全球碳排放的最大來(lái)源，今年煤炭發(fā)電創(chuàng)歷史高位是一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的跡象，表明世界將碳排放降至凈零的努力離軌道有多遠(yuǎn)。”
根據(jù)IEA能源市場(chǎng)和安全主管Keisuke Sadamori所說(shuō)，“已做出達(dá)到凈零排放承諾的許多國(guó)家，包括亞洲大國(guó)和印度，應(yīng)該對(duì)煤炭消費(fèi)有很強(qiáng)的影響，但在我們的近期預(yù)測(cè)中，這些國(guó)家還不引人注目，這反映了雄心和行動(dòng)之間的巨大差距”。
李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
IEA: Coal Set For Record Highs In 2022 Despite Net-Zero Pledges
The economic rebound from the pandemic is taking coal power generation to a new record high this year, with global coal demand likely hitting another new high next year, undermining net-zero efforts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Coal 2021 report released on Friday.
According to the agency, the 2020 collapse in coal demand turned out to be smaller than anticipated, as the key comsumer’s recovery began sooner than expected and turned out to be stronger than initially forecast.
based on current trends, global coal demand is set to rise to 8025 Mt in 2022, the highest level ever seen, and to remain there through 2024, the IEA estimates.
This year’s global recovery dashed any hopes that coal-fired power generation may have peaked, the IEA said, expecting global coal power generation to rise by 9 percent this year to 10350 terawatt-hours (TWh)—a new all-time high.
Over the next two years, global coal demand could even see new record highs as emerging markets led by China and India will lead consumption growth which is set to outpace declines in developed economies, according to the IEA.
Global coal consumption is not on the Net Zero trajectory and is unlikely to be before 2024, the agency said.
“Although global investment in renewable energy will be strong in the medium and long term, coal supplies are expected to expand until 2024,” the IEA said in its report.
“Coal is the single largest source of global carbon emissions, and this year’s historically high level of coal power generation is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
According to Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA, “The pledges to reach net zero emissions made by many countries, including the biggest country in Asia and India, should have very strong implications for coal – but these are not yet visible in our near-term forecast, reflecting the major gap between ambitions and action.”
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