據油價網3月16日消息稱，能源技術研究咨詢公司Thunder Said Energy周三在一份報告中表示，能源大宗商品價格的上漲預計將推動全球一次能源支出占全球國內生產總值(GDP)的比例升至創紀錄的13%，相當于1979年-1980年能源危機時的能源成本水平。

該咨詢公司指出，預計13%的創紀錄能源支出將是1900年至2020年間4%的平均水平的三倍，是2018年水平的1.3倍。

自20世紀初以來，一次能源支出平均占全球GDP的4%，在第一次石油危機后上升到8%，在第二次石油危機后上升到13%，2008年為10%，在2013-2015年價格上漲時為8%-10%。

Thunder Said Energy指出，作為全球GDP一部分的一部分，能源支出預計將達到創紀錄水平，其假設價格為每噸煤250美元-300美元、每桶原油125美元-150美元、全球天然氣40美元-45美元/千立方英尺。

Thunder Said Energy分析師兼首席執行官Rob West在報告中寫道：“所以這不是‘石油沖擊’或‘天然氣沖擊’，而是‘一切沖擊’。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Energy Spending To Hit Record 13% Of Global GDP In 2022

Rallying energy commodity prices are expected to drive up primary energy expenditures globally to a record 13 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP), comparable to the energy cost levels in the 1979-80 energy crisis, research consultancy for energy technologies Thunder Said Energy said in a report on Wednesday.  

The expected record 13-percent energy expenditure would be three times the average level of 4 percent between 1900 and 2020, and 1.3 times the 2018 levels, the consultancy noted.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, primary energy expenditures have averaged 4 percent of global GDP, rising to 8 percent after the first oil shock, 13 percent after the second oil shock, 10 percent in 2008, and 8-10 percent in 2013-2015, when prices were high.

The estimate of a record energy expenditure as part of global GDP assumes prices of $250-$300 per ton of coal, $125-$150 per barrel of crude oil, and $40-45/mcf price of global natural gas, Thunder Said Energy noted.

"So this is not an 'oil shock' or a 'gas shock' but an 'everything shock'," Rob West, Analyst & CEO at Thunder Said Energy, wrote in the report.