據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站7月19日報道，美國的天然氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計在未來幾個月里將再次創(chuàng)下歷史新高，屆時天然氣日產(chǎn)量將超過1000億立方英尺，美國將在全球面臨嚴(yán)重天然氣供應(yīng)短缺的情況下幫助滿足全球需求。

挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的分析顯示，美國主要產(chǎn)氣盆地海恩斯維爾和阿帕拉契亞的頁巖氣產(chǎn)量增長，以及來自二疊紀(jì)盆地的伴生天然氣產(chǎn)量增長，將鞏固美國作為全球最大天然氣生產(chǎn)國的地位，從而擴(kuò)大其對產(chǎn)能大國的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢，并超過美國能源信息署（EIA）的官方增長預(yù)期。  

在頁巖氣遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)中，馬塞勒斯、尤蒂卡和海恩斯維爾的貢獻(xiàn)最大。然而，阿巴拉契亞頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)的發(fā)展完全取決于擬議中的山谷管道項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)展，該管道項(xiàng)目仍面臨重大的法律障礙。與2021年相比，僅海恩斯維爾頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)今年的日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將增長26億立方英尺，使其頁巖氣日產(chǎn)量超過140億立方英尺。預(yù)計海恩斯維爾頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)的日總產(chǎn)量明年也將大幅增加，到2023年底達(dá)到172億立方英尺。在美國的其他頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)，伍德福德盆地的天然氣產(chǎn)量也可能在2023年對日總產(chǎn)量的增長作出重大貢獻(xiàn)，其中10億立方英尺的產(chǎn)量增長并不排除。 

Rystad表示，近期全球天然氣價格飆升，正推動美國勘探和生產(chǎn)公司增加投資，希望利用具有競爭力的盈虧平衡成本。在歐洲努力緩解對天然氣的依賴之際，歐洲天然氣供應(yīng)出現(xiàn)明顯短缺，這推動歐洲大陸的天然氣價格不斷走高。盡管美國和歐洲的價差相對較高，但在大西洋兩岸生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)輸美國天然氣（即使考慮到昂貴的液化過程）仍具有經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢。  

歐洲和美國的天然氣價格計算方法不同，但如果將歐洲價格換算成美國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的美元/百萬英熱單位（MMBtu），就可以直接進(jìn)行比較。自2020年夏季以來，美歐價差穩(wěn)步擴(kuò)大。當(dāng)時，不同尋常的市場基本面因素導(dǎo)致美國基準(zhǔn)亨利基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)和歐洲基準(zhǔn)荷蘭基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)異常接近。

地緣政治沖突爆發(fā)以及隨之而來的全球能源危機(jī)加劇了這種差距。截至7月15日，亨利中心的價格為7美元/ 百萬英熱單位，而TTF的價格為驚人的47美元/ 百萬英熱單位，幾乎是美國價格的7倍。 然而，液化天然氣產(chǎn)能的限制將限制美國向國際運(yùn)輸?shù)奶烊粴鈹?shù)量。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

U.S. Gas Output To Hit Record High By End-2022. More Growth In 2023.

US natural gas production is forecast to hit an all-time high in the coming months, racing past 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), helping feed global demand as the world faces a severe supply shortage.

Rystad Energy’s analysis shows that production growth from the major US gas-producing basins of the Haynesville and Appalachia, in addition to associated gas volumes from the Permian, will solidify the country’s position as the world’s largest gas producer, stretching its lead, and surpassing the official growth expectations of the EIA.

Within shale gas plays, the Marcellus, Utica, and Haynesville are set to contribute the most. Growth in Appalachia, however, is entirely dependent on the progress of the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline, which still faces significant legal hurdles. Production from the Haynesville alone is expected to grow by a staggering 2.6 Bcfd this year compared to 2021, pushing annual output from the play to more than 14 Bcfd. Total production from the basin is forecast to jump next year too, reaching 17.2 Bcfd by the end of 2023. Elsewhere in the US, gas production from the Woodford basin could also contribute major growth to total output in 2023, with a 1 Bcfd expansion not off the table.

Rystad said that the recent global gas price surges were driving increased investment by US exploration and production companies looking to capitalize on competitive breakeven costs. A well-documented European supply shortage amid efforts to ease reliance on gas is pushing prices on the continent ever higher. Although relatively elevated for the domestic market, US and European price differences are so wide producing and shipping US gas across the Atlantic, even accounting for the pricey liquefaction process, is still economically advantageous.

Gas prices are measured differently in Europe and the US but converting European prices to the US-standard dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu) allows a direct comparison. The US-Europe price spread has widened steadily since summer 2020, when unusual market fundamentals brought the Henry Hub – the US benchmark – and the Dutch TTF – the European marker – unusually close. The war and the ensuing global energy crisis has accelerated the disparity. As of July 15, the Henry Hub was $7 per MMBtu, whereas the TTF stood at a staggering $47 per MMBtu, almost seven times the US price. However, LNG capacity constraints will limit how much gas the US can ship internationally.