據鉆機地帶9月5日報道，根據惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業(yè)研究公司發(fā)布的一份新報告顯示，該公司再次維持布倫特原油價格預測不變。

該報告強調，該公司仍認為布倫特原油2022年均價為105美元/桶，2023年100美元/桶，然后在2024年和2025年降至88美元/桶，2026年降至85美元/桶。這些價格預測與該公司8月和7月的預測一致。

該公司最新的價格預測是在布倫特經歷了動蕩的幾周后做出的，布倫特原油在8月29日收于每桶105.09美元，9月1日收于每桶92.36美元。布倫特原油的2022年迄今最高收盤價是3月8日，收于每桶127.98美元。到目前為止，該商品在2022年的最低收盤價為1月3日每桶78.98美元。

惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業(yè)研究分析師在該公司最新報告中表示，我們本月維持布倫特原油價格預測不變，2022年均價為105美元/桶，2023年100美元/桶。并補充道，我們的基本面前景大致保持不變，盡管前景面臨的廣泛風險繼續(xù)上升且價格仍然波動。

在報告中，分析師們強調了布倫特原油價格的波動，并指出，造成油價高波動性的一個關鍵因素是持續(xù)的低流動性。

這些分析師表示，石油交易的風險，加上提交抵押品和滿足保證金要求的困難，削弱了流動性，使市場容易受到頻繁的大幅價格波動的影響。分析師補充稱，與此同時，布倫特原油正被相互沖突的價格驅動因素所左右，目前供應和需求方面的前景都高度不確定。我們預計短期內波動性不會減弱，我們認為上行和下行的風險大致平衡。

在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油的交易價格為每桶95.57美元。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Fitch Solutions Offers Latest Oil Price Prediction

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has left its Brent crude forecast unchanged again, a new report from the company has revealed.

The company still sees the Brent price averaging $105 per barrel in 2022 and $100 per barrel in 2023, before dropping to $88 per barrel in 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026, the report highlighted. These price predictions are identical to company forecasts made in August and July.

The company’s latest price projections come after a volatile few weeks for Brent, which has seen the commodity close at $105.09 per barrel on August 29 and $92.36 per barrel on September 1. Brent’s highest close in 2022, so far, was seen on March 8, at $127.98 per barrel. The lowest the commodity has closed in 2022, so far, is $78.98 per barrel, on January 3.

“We have left our Brent crude price forecast unchanged this month, at an average of $105 per barrel in 2022 and $100 per barrel in 2023,” Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research analysts stated in the company’s latest report.

“Our fundamental outlook remains broadly unchanged, although a broad range of risks to the outlook continue to rise and prices remain volatile,” the analysts added.

In the report, the analysts highlighted swings in Brent and noted that a key factor in the high volatility seen in prices is the ongoing low liquidity.

“The riskiness of oil trading combined with difficulties in posting collateral and meeting margin calls has sapped liquidity, leaving the market vulnerable to large and frequent price swings,” the analysts stated.

“Meanwhile Brent is being torn between conflicting price drivers, with both the supply and demand-side outlooks highly uncertain at this stage. We do not expect volatility to abate in the near term and see the risks to our outlook as being broadly balanced to the upside and the down,” the analysts added.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $95.57 per barrel.