一系列事件可能會(huì)決定今年12月份和明年初的油價(jià)走勢(shì)

12月4日的歐佩克+會(huì)議可能是石油的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)時(shí)刻

歐盟開(kāi)始實(shí)施禁運(yùn)，為全球石油市場(chǎng)增加了又一層不確定性

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)11月29日?qǐng)?bào)道，未來(lái)幾天將是全球石油市場(chǎng)幾周來(lái)最關(guān)鍵的幾天，因?yàn)槎鄠€(gè)事件和因素可能同時(shí)決定今年年底及以后的原油價(jià)格趨勢(shì)。不確定性很高，這將引發(fā)原油價(jià)格的進(jìn)一步波動(dòng)。

最近的油價(jià)暴跌，布倫特原油價(jià)格在一周內(nèi)暴跌10%，加劇了人們對(duì)歐佩克+成員國(guó)可能在12月4日(周日)開(kāi)會(huì)時(shí)考慮再次減產(chǎn)的猜測(cè)。 次日，也就是12月5日，歐盟禁令和相關(guān)的七國(guó)集團(tuán)-歐盟原油價(jià)格上限將開(kāi)始實(shí)施，具體的上限價(jià)格還有待商定和宣布。 

有這么多的不確定性，油價(jià)就像蹺蹺板一樣，隨著每一個(gè)謠言或報(bào)道而上下波動(dòng)。 下周和之后的幾周可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)更多類(lèi)似的情況，原油價(jià)格可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)，取決于歐佩克+會(huì)議、歐盟禁令和價(jià)格上限及對(duì)此的反應(yīng)。

歐佩克+將做什么?

油價(jià)的劇烈下跌始于11月21日，此前《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》援引歐佩克代表的話(huà)報(bào)道稱(chēng)，鑒于歐盟對(duì)海運(yùn)原油進(jìn)口的禁令，歐佩克成員國(guó)已非正式討論了是否需要在市場(chǎng)上增加原油供應(yīng)。 歐佩克最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)沙特阿拉伯和另一個(gè)有影響力的成員國(guó)阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)立即否認(rèn)了這一報(bào)道。

阿聯(lián)酋能源部長(zhǎng)蘇海爾·馬茲魯伊11月21日表示：“阿聯(lián)酋否認(rèn)正在與其他歐佩克+成員國(guó)進(jìn)行任何討論，以改變截至2023年底的上次減產(chǎn)協(xié)議。”

“我們?nèi)匀恢铝τ跉W佩克+的目標(biāo)，以平衡石油市場(chǎng)，并將支持實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的任何決定”，馬茲魯伊補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。 

一周后，截至11月29日，越來(lái)越多的猜測(cè)稱(chēng)，歐佩克+可能會(huì)在12月4日召開(kāi)的會(huì)議上考慮減產(chǎn)，原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩導(dǎo)致石油需求前景低于預(yù)期。  

考慮到油價(jià)在本周早些時(shí)候跌至去年12月以來(lái)的最低水平，歐佩克+可能確實(shí)會(huì)決定捍衛(wèi)80美元的原油價(jià)格下限，但要預(yù)測(cè)禁運(yùn)將如何影響貿(mào)易流動(dòng)和價(jià)格將是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)。

不過(guò)，有關(guān)降息的猜測(cè)越來(lái)越多。11月29日早些時(shí)候，油價(jià)上漲了2%，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)參與者認(rèn)為可能會(huì)有新的降息，在油價(jià)最近幾天的暴跌之后，市場(chǎng)參與者可能會(huì)逢低買(mǎi)進(jìn)。

彭博新聞社周一調(diào)查的多數(shù)交易商和分析師預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克+將在11月開(kāi)始每天削減200萬(wàn)桶原油的基礎(chǔ)上，進(jìn)一步削減其整體產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)。  

此外，石油期貨市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)顯示出全球石油需求低迷和禁運(yùn)前供應(yīng)充足的跡象。現(xiàn)貨需求走弱，中東原油現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)大幅下跌，可能促使歐佩克+在12月4日宣布新一輪減產(chǎn)。 

以沙特阿拉伯為首的歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)聯(lián)盟經(jīng)常否認(rèn)它們是在捍衛(wèi)某個(gè)油價(jià)，但它們總是說(shuō)，它們關(guān)注的是市場(chǎng)基本面。 這些天，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)顯示出疲軟的跡象，甚至在短期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)過(guò)剩的情況。

歐佩克第二大產(chǎn)油國(guó)伊拉克本周末暗示，歐佩克+12月4日會(huì)議將重點(diǎn)討論當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)狀況和平衡。

法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行大宗商品研究與策略全球主管邁克爾·黑格對(duì)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》表示：“所有這些因素對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)都非常重要，它們可以極大地推動(dòng)價(jià)格從一個(gè)方向轉(zhuǎn)向另一個(gè)方向。”

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Next Week Will Be Critical For Oil Markets

·   A number of events could determine the course of oil prices in December and early next year.

·   The OPEC+ meeting on December 4 could be a watershed moment for oil.

·   The beginning of the EU embargo on seaborne crude oil imports adds another layer of uncertainty in oil markets.

The next few days will be one of the most crucial for the oil market in weeks as several events and factors at the same time could determine the trend in prices by the end of this year and beyond.  While the OPEC+ meeting on December 4 and the beginning of the EU embargo onseaborne crude oil imports on the next day are likely to shape the course of the prices. Uncertainty is high, which would stoke further volatility in prices. 

The recent price rout, with Brent plunging by 10% in one week, intensified speculation that OPEC+ members could consider another production cut when they meet on Sunday, December 4. On the following day, December 5, the EU ban on imports of crude oil and the associated G7-EU price cap begins, with the exact price of the cap yet to be agreed on and announced. 

With so many uncertainties, oil prices are seesawing and jumping up or down on every rumor or report. The next week and the ones after that will likely see more of the same and prices could swing either way depending on the OPEC+ meeting, the EU ban and price cap on oil and the reaction to it, which, so far, is singlehandedly dragging down oil prices due to fears of weak demand. 

What Will OPEC+ Do?

A violent move down in prices began on November 21 after The Wall Street Journal reported, citing OPEC delegates, that the members of the cartel had informally discussed whether there would be a need for more oil on the market in view of the EU embargo on crude oil imports. The report was immediately denied by OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia and another influential member of the cartel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

“United Arab Emirates denied that it is engaging in any discussion with other OPEC+ members to change the last agreement, which is valid until the end of 2023,” its Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on November 21.

“We remain committed to OPEC+ aim to balance the oil market and will support any decision to achieve that goal,” the minister added. 

A week later, as of November 29, speculation is mounting that OPEC+ could consider a cut at its December 4 meeting due to gloomier-than-expected oil demand outlook. 

Considering that oil prices slumped to the lowest level since December 2021 earlier this week, OPEC+ could indeed decide to defend an $80 floor under prices, but it will have a difficult task in predicting how the embargo on crude will impact trade flows and prices. 

Still, speculation about a cut is gathering momentum. Early on Tuesday, oil prices rose by 2% as market participants weighed a possible new cut and were possibly buying the dip after the rout in recent days. 

Most traders and analysts polled by Bloomberg on Monday expect further OPEC+ cuts to its headline production target, on top of the 2 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction which began this month. 

Moreover, the structure of the oil futures market is showing signs of sluggish global oil demand and sufficient supply just ahead of the embargo. Weakening physical demand and plunging spot premiums for Middle Eastern crude could prompt OPEC+ to announce a fresh cut on Sunday. 

The alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by regularly denies it’s defending a certain oil price, but it always says that it looks at the market fundamentals. And these days, the physical market is showing signs of weakness and even an oversupply in the short term, considering the contango in both WTI and Brent front-month to second-month futures. 

Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, signaled this weekend that the OPEC+ meeting would focus on the current market conditions and balances.  

“All of these things are so significant to the oil markets that they could whip prices from one direction to the other very significantly,” Michael Haigh, Global Head of Commodities Research & Strategy Societe Generale, told The Wall Street Journal.