據(jù)天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)3月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)美國(guó)EIA的《石油供應(yīng)月刊》顯示，2022年，美國(guó)乙烷需求增長(zhǎng)了約9%，即近20萬(wàn)桶/天。自2010年以來(lái)，隨著美國(guó)石化產(chǎn)能的增加，美國(guó)乙烷的產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量一直在增長(zhǎng)。美國(guó)乙烷產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)量(乙烷消費(fèi)量的指標(biāo))在2022年平均略低于200萬(wàn)桶/天，7月達(dá)到近220萬(wàn)桶/天的峰值。

2012年以后增加的大多數(shù)美國(guó)石化裂解產(chǎn)能只能使用乙烷作為原料，這意味著乙烷價(jià)格高可以減少乙烯產(chǎn)量。根據(jù)彭博財(cái)經(jīng)，L.P.的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在2022年的前六個(gè)月，乙烷價(jià)格幾乎翻了一番，從大約37美分/加侖，或每百萬(wàn)英熱單位5.65美元，增至64美分/加侖，或9.67美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。在2022年第三季度，位于得克薩斯州的亞瑟港和賓夕法尼亞州Monaca的新的乙烯裂解裝置投產(chǎn)，總共增加了15.6萬(wàn)桶/天的國(guó)內(nèi)乙烷裂解能力。在此之前，2021年乙烷裂解日產(chǎn)能增加10.8萬(wàn)桶。

美國(guó)和國(guó)際上的石化廠在蒸汽裂解爐中使用乙烷生產(chǎn)乙烯，這是制造許多塑料和樹(shù)脂的前體化學(xué)品。與美國(guó)乙烷裂解能力的提高類(lèi)似，過(guò)去十年，國(guó)際上對(duì)美國(guó)乙烷作為石化原料的需求也在增加，導(dǎo)致出口增加。2022年，美國(guó)乙烷年出口量接近45萬(wàn)桶/日，比2021增長(zhǎng)22%。美國(guó)對(duì)亞洲大國(guó)的乙烷出口量較2021增加了50%，2022年達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的平均15.7萬(wàn)桶/日。建造新的乙烷油輪也有助于提高美國(guó)的乙烷出口。

在EIA的《短期能源展望》（STEO）中，該組織預(yù)測(cè)，今年國(guó)內(nèi)乙烷消費(fèi)量將保持與2022年類(lèi)似，因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)在預(yù)測(cè)期結(jié)束之前不會(huì)有任何新的美國(guó)石化裂解廠建成。EIA預(yù)計(jì)2023年和2024年的乙烷平均消耗量為210萬(wàn)桶/日。到2024年12月，乙烷的日均出口量將達(dá)到50萬(wàn)桶，與2022年的平均值相比，增加了5萬(wàn)桶/天。更多的石化產(chǎn)能將在國(guó)外上線，出口產(chǎn)能的增加將推動(dòng)這些增長(zhǎng)。

郝芬 譯自 天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Driven by petrochemical capacity builds, U.S. ethane increased 9% in 2022

In 2022, U.S. ethane demand increased by approximately 9%, or almost 0.2 MMbpd, according to the U.S. EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly. U.S. production and consumption of ethane (a hydrocarbon gas liquid used almost exclusively as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry) has grown since 2010, along with the build-out of U.S. petrochemical capacity. U.S. ethane product supplied, a proxy for ethane consumption, averaged just under 2 MMbpd in 2022, reaching a peak of almost 2.2 MMbpd in July.

Most U.S. petrochemical cracking capacity built after 2012 can use only ethane as a feedstock, meaning high ethane prices can reduce ethylene production. Ethane prices nearly doubled during the first six months of 2022, from approximately 37 cents/gallon (gal), or $5.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), to 64 cents/gal, or $9.67/MMBtu, according to Bloomberg Finance, L.P. In the third quarter of 2022, new ethylene crackers came online in Port Arthur, Texas and Monaca, Pennsylvania, adding a combined 156,000 bpd of domestic ethane cracking capacity. These capacity additions follow a 108,000 bpd increase in ethane cracking capacity in 2021.

Petrochemical plants in the United States and internationally use ethane in steam crackers to produce ethylene, a precursor chemical for manufacturing many plastics and resins. Similar to the expansion of U.S. ethane cracking capacity, international demand for U.S. ethane as a petrochemical feedstock has also been increasing over the past decade, leading to higher exports. Annual U.S. ethane exports reached close to 450,000 b/d in 2022, up 22% from 2021. U.S. ethane exports to the biggest market in Asia increased 50% from 2021 to a record-high average of 157,000 b/d in 2022. The construction of new ethane tankers has also helped make higher U.S. ethane exports possible.

In the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the organization forecasted that domestic ethane consumption will remain similar to 2022 because we do not expect any new U.S. petrochemical cracker plants to be completed before the end of the forecast period. The EIA expects ethane consumption to average 2.1 MMbpd in 2023 and 2024. Ethane exports will average 500,000 bpd by December 2024, up 50,000 bpd compared with the 2022 average. More petrochemical capacity coming online abroad and export capacity additions will drive these increases.