據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年3月28日?qǐng)?bào)道，上周不斷暴跌的油價(jià)對(duì)石油大型需求端極具誘惑力，他們利用低油價(jià)來(lái)對(duì)沖不可避免的價(jià)格上漲。

彭博新聞社對(duì)交易數(shù)據(jù)的分析顯示，航空公司等大型需求端迅速增加了對(duì)沖。彭博新聞社稱，上周原油交易活動(dòng)明顯增加，但目前只有用銀行定位數(shù)據(jù)才能量化這種活動(dòng)的程度。

上周掉期交易商在洲際交易所(ICE)期貨和期權(quán)的多頭頭寸增加了5.4萬(wàn)份，為有記錄以來(lái)的第二大增幅。歷史上唯一一次多頭頭寸增加最多的是在2018年。

在去年的大部分時(shí)間里，這些石油大型需求端都受到高油價(jià)的影響，現(xiàn)在它們正尋求從最近的油價(jià)暴跌中獲利。他們認(rèn)為油價(jià)今年仍有很大可能回升，這是一個(gè)很好的機(jī)會(huì)。

石油分析師預(yù)測(cè)，今年油價(jià)將出現(xiàn)反彈，他們寄望于亞洲重新開放能夠推動(dòng)全球石油需求。

在彭博新聞社引用的一則傳聞中，歐洲航空公司德國(guó)漢莎航空公司表示，它將石油對(duì)沖增加到計(jì)劃使用量的85%，從而恢復(fù)到疫情前的對(duì)沖水平。

布倫特原油價(jià)格上周大幅下跌，跌至每桶72美元出頭，但此后已顯示出復(fù)蘇跡象。截至美國(guó)東部時(shí)間3月28日上午10時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格目前為每桶78.15美元，當(dāng)天上漲0.08%，一周上漲3美元。然而，布倫特原油價(jià)格仍比3月初每桶低8美元。

現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題是，布倫特原油價(jià)格什么時(shí)候會(huì)完全反彈，現(xiàn)在仍然是對(duì)沖的好時(shí)機(jī)，還是說(shuō)還沒(méi)有對(duì)沖的石油大型需求端錯(cuò)過(guò)了機(jī)會(huì)? 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil’s Low Prices Draw Rash Of Hedging

Last week’s crashing oil prices were awfully tempting last week for big oil consumers, who took advantage of the low prices to hedge against the inevitable price rise.

Major oil consumers such as airlines boosted their hedging at a rapid pace, according to a Bloomberg analysis of trading data. It was clear last week that there was a sharp rise in trading activity for crude oil, but the extent of the flurry of activity is only now quantifiable with bank positioning data, Bloomberg said.

Swap dealers saw the second-largest increase on record in long positions in the ICE futures and options, as contracts increased by 54,000. The only time in history that they’ve been higher was back in 2018.

These big crude oil consumers were at the mercy of high oil prices for much of last year, and are now looking to cash in on the recent price crash. And they’re not wrong in thinking that there is a good chance oil prices will recover yet this year.

Oil analysts are forecasting that there will be an oil price recovery this year, banking on a push of demand thanks to China’s reopening.

In one anecdote cited by Bloomberg, European airline Deutsche Lufthansa AG said it increased its oil hedging to 85% of its planned usage—returning to the levels it was hedging prior to the pandemic.

Brent crude prices fell spectacularly last week, to just over $72 per barrel, but have since shown signs of recovery. Brent prices are now trading at $78.15 as of 10:00 am ET, a 0.08% gain on the day but a $3 gain on the week. Prices, however, are still $8 less than where prices were towards the beginning of the month.

The question now is, when will prices rebound fully, and is now still a good time to hedge, or have big users who haven’t yet hedged missed their opportunity?