“油價(jià)正在攀登質(zhì)疑和懷疑之墻”（源自金融領(lǐng)域，意指投資者在對(duì)市場(chǎng)前景保持謹(jǐn)慎懷疑的同時(shí)，仍繼續(xù)投資與時(shí)刻準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)）

沙特阿拉伯不太可能在每桶90美元或92美元的油價(jià)時(shí)逆轉(zhuǎn)減產(chǎn)

8月14日，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇繼續(xù)令人失望，而美元走強(qiáng)，油價(jià)小幅走低

  據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年8月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源咨詢公司拉皮丹能源集團(tuán)（Rapidan Energy）總裁鮑勃·麥克納利周一在接受CNBC的財(cái)經(jīng)漫談（Squawk Box）節(jié)目采訪時(shí)表示，石油市場(chǎng)正處于看漲走勢(shì)，并將穩(wěn)步進(jìn)入每桶90美元的區(qū)間。

麥克納利補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，油價(jià)達(dá)到每桶100美元是“完全有可能的”。

麥克納利說(shuō)：“油價(jià)正在攀登至質(zhì)疑和懷疑之墻。”

到目前為止，交易商們一直關(guān)注的是產(chǎn)能大國(guó)的供應(yīng)不會(huì)大幅下降。麥克納利告訴CNBC，市場(chǎng)也“在宏觀雷區(qū)跳舞”。

“我們有充分的理由持懷疑態(tài)度。但基本面就是基本面。歐佩克+聯(lián)盟將在下半年給市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)巨大的產(chǎn)能赤字。”麥克納利補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。 

麥克納利表示，沙特阿拉伯不太可能在每桶90美元或92美元的油價(jià)時(shí)逆轉(zhuǎn)減產(chǎn)。沙特阿拉伯更有可能希望確保“在他們決定剎車之前，他們正在創(chuàng)造的赤字正在我們眼前實(shí)現(xiàn)”。

美國(guó)政府沒(méi)有任何好的辦法來(lái)降低汽油價(jià)格。麥克納利告訴CNBC，如果美國(guó)全國(guó)汽油平均價(jià)格再次達(dá)到每加侖4美元，可能會(huì)有更多的汽油從戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備(SPR)中提取出來(lái)，但在去年SPR發(fā)布后，這不是一個(gè)很好的選擇。

由于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇繼續(xù)令人失望，而美元走強(qiáng)，8月14日油價(jià)小幅下跌。

盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)分析師周一在一份市場(chǎng)評(píng)論中表示，只要?dú)W佩克+聯(lián)盟維持目前緊張的產(chǎn)量水平，油價(jià)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然有限，尤其是考慮到國(guó)際能源署(IEA)上周的預(yù)測(cè)，即6月份石油需求飆升至歷史高位，并可能進(jìn)一步上升。

荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)(ING)策略師沃倫·帕特森和埃瓦·曼西尼8月14日表示，布倫特原油價(jià)格已連續(xù)七周上漲，原因是基本面趨緊繼續(xù)導(dǎo)致原油均價(jià)和時(shí)間套利走強(qiáng)。

他們補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“市場(chǎng)情緒基本保持積極，石油平衡將繼續(xù)收緊，而煉油廠利潤(rùn)率上升也提供了一些支撐。”

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Analyst: Oil Is Heading Well Into The $90 Range

·     McNally: “Oil prices are climbing a wall of doubt and skepticism,”.

·     McNally: The Saudis are unlikely to reverse the cuts at $90 or $92 oil.

·     Oil prices traded slightly lower on Monday as economic recovery continued to disappoint while the U.S. dollar strengthened.

The oil market is in a bullish move and heading well into the $90 per barrel range, Bob McNally, President at Rapidan Energy, told CNBC’s Squawk Box program on Monday.

Oil hitting $100 per barrel is “entirely possible,” McNally added.

“Oil prices are climbing a wall of doubt and skepticism,” he said.

So far, traders have been focused on the lack of a significant drop in the bigger producer's supply. The market is also “dancing in a macro minefield,” McNally told CNBC.  

“There are good reasons to be skeptical. But fundamentals are fundamentals. OPEC+ is going to put a huge deficit into the market into the second half,” he added.

The Saudis are unlikely to reverse the cuts at $90 or $92 oil, McNally said. The Kingdom is more likely looking to be sure that “the deficits they are creating are materializing before our eyes, before they decide to put the brake there.”

The U.S. Administration doesn’t have any good options for bringing the price of gasoline down. Should national average prices hit $4 per gallon again, there could be more draws from the Strategic PB etroleum Reserve (SPR), but this isn’t a very good option after last year’s releases from the SPR, McNally told CNBC.

Oil prices traded lower on Monday as economic recovery continued to disappoint while the U.S. dollar strengthened.

The downside risks remain limited as long as OPEC+ maintain production at the current tight levels, not least considering IEA’s forecast from last week that oil demand surged to a record high in June and may rise even further, Saxo Bank analysts said in a market commentary on Monday. 

Brent prices have now registered seven consecutive weeks of gains as tighter fundamentals continue to feed through to a stronger flat price and time spreads, ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Monday.

“Sentiment remains largely positive with the oil balance set to continue to tighten, while stronger refinery margins are also providing some support,” they added.