???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年3月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，來(lái)自美國(guó)投資銀行派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）的克雷格?約翰遜日前表示，原油價(jià)格年內(nèi)可能達(dá)到每桶100美元，并在今年年底前可能突破100美元大關(guān)。
????約翰遜是在接受CNBC記者采訪時(shí)發(fā)表上述講話的。他表示，“我可以預(yù)見(jiàn)，油價(jià)從現(xiàn)在起的未來(lái)6至12個(gè)月時(shí)間里突破100美元。”他指出，原油價(jià)格仍有強(qiáng)勁的上行潛力。“在我們看來(lái)，油價(jià)可能有超過(guò)40%的上行空間回到2018年創(chuàng)下的舊的高點(diǎn)，” 約翰遜如是說(shuō)。
????約翰遜和其他金融專業(yè)人士一樣，對(duì)原油價(jià)格做出了樂(lè)觀的預(yù)測(cè)，這在很大程度上是受到美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)上周批準(zhǔn)的1.9萬(wàn)億美元經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的推動(dòng)。人們普遍預(yù)計(jì)這個(gè)計(jì)劃將刺激美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，提振石油需求。
????全球需求復(fù)蘇也是這些看漲油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)的一個(gè)因素，盡管這種復(fù)蘇并不均衡，在亞洲(尤其是中國(guó))的復(fù)蘇最為強(qiáng)勁，但在其他主要市場(chǎng)，恢復(fù)到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前水平的速度較慢。
????然后是供應(yīng)方面。歐佩克+決定維持其720萬(wàn)桶/天的減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，這使得布倫特原油價(jià)格在短期內(nèi)突破了70美元/桶。普林斯頓能源顧問(wèn)公司表示，如果歐佩克+繼續(xù)限制產(chǎn)量，全球石油市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)約3.5% - 3.6%的需求缺口。而這一缺口確實(shí)有可能推動(dòng)油價(jià)接近100美元。
????然而，即使需求有所改善，也沒(méi)有什么是確定的。據(jù)報(bào)道，中國(guó)的石油儲(chǔ)存空間已經(jīng)滿了。在全球需求的另一個(gè)主要推動(dòng)者印度，燃料油價(jià)格漲得如此之高，以致于抑制了需求。由于當(dāng)前油價(jià)對(duì)印度來(lái)說(shuō)太高，印度已經(jīng)在為歐佩克的中東成員國(guó)尋找替代供應(yīng)商。
????但是，并非所有預(yù)測(cè)者對(duì)油價(jià)都如此樂(lè)觀。路透社近期的一次調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，被調(diào)查者一致預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油價(jià)格為59.07美元/桶。根據(jù)美國(guó)銀行的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，每個(gè)回答者的預(yù)測(cè)都不同，從未來(lái)5年的50-70美元/桶到今年的67美元/桶。高盛公司的預(yù)測(cè)是75美元/桶。
????李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
????原文如下：
????Another Investment Bank Is Betting On $100 Oil
????Crude oil could hit $100 and top it, and this could happen before this year’s end, according to Craig Johnson from investment bank Piper Sandler.
????Speaking to CNBC, Johnson said, “I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to ... 12 months from here,” noting the still strong upside potential of crude. “To us, it looks like you could have more than 40% upside to get back to the old highs in 2018”.
????Johnson joins other financial professionals in their upbeat predictions for crude oil prices, largely driven by the $1.9-trillion economic stimulus package that Congress approved last week. That is widely expected to jumpstart the U.S. economy, boosting oil demand.
????Global demand recovery is also a factor in these bullish oil price forecasts even if this recovery has been uneven, strongest in Asia and most notably China but slow to return to pre-pandemic levels in other key markets.
????Then there is the supply side. OPEC+ has decided to keep its 7.2-million-bpd production cuts, which recently drove Brent over $70 a barrel, albeit briefly. If the cartel continues to limit production, the global oil market will swing into a deficit of some 3.5-3.6 percent of demand, according to Princeton Energy Advisors. And this deficit has the genuine potential to drive oil price closer to $100.
????Yet nothing is certain, even with improving demand. China’s oil storage space is filled to capacity, according to reports. In India, another major driver of global demand, fuel prices have gone so high they are dampening demand. And the country is already looking for alternative suppliers to the Middle Eastern members of OPEC because current prices are too high for it.
????Not all forecasters are so bullish, however. A recent Reuters poll revealed a consensus price projection of $59.07 a barrel for Brent crude. Individual forecasts vary from $50-70 over the next five years, according to Bank of America, to $67 a barrel this year, according to Barclays, and $75 by the third quarter, according to Goldman Sachs.
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